The Courier

Abu Bakaar Mansaray, Digital Man, 2004. Ballpoint pen and graphite on paper, 150 x 201.5 cm. Courtesy of C.A.A.C. - The Pigozzi Collection, Geneva.

Photo : Maurice Aeschimann

According to market analyst David Miller’s forecast, prices could double yet again. There is considerable tension in the market due to the unexpected increases in demand and also the fear of exhausting uranium supplies between 2015 and 2040, as predicted by the most pessimistic of the economic forecasters. However, this view is contested by Robert Vance, an analyst with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), who believes that, “Today there is sufficient uranium to produce electricity for 270 years, especially as the new fourth generation rapid reactors will consume 50 times less uranium than at present.” However, Vance’s comments do take into account that demand is set to rise dramatically. Over the next five years 31 nuclear plants will be built or modernised worldwide and by 2020 China alone plans to invest US$8 billion in building 27 plants, with India constructing a further 17 by 2012.

There is also demand from Africa. In South Africa, where there are fears of an electricity generation shortfall of some10,000 megawatts by 2020, the national electricity company ESKOM is planning to build a fourth generation reactor (likely in Koeberg), plus additional projects with a total capacity of over 4,000 megawatts. This is in addition to its two existing reactors (out of 442 worldwide), which are the only reactors currently operational in Africa, with the exception of several small research reactors.

Nuclear programmes in Africa

Other African countries are also emerging as future clients for uranium. In July 2007 French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Libyan leader Muammar Khadaffi signed a protocol agreement to supply Libya with a reactor for civilian use. This agreement was facilitated by Libya’s pledge to drop any plans to acquire weapons of mass destruction and to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The previous year France had also signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Tunisia, which is considering the construction of a 600 megawatt reactor.

Last April, Ghana (which like Nigeria has had a small research reactor supplied by China since 1994) signed a cooperation agreement with Egypt in 2006 and announced it also planned to embark on nuclear energy production. Elsewhere, Russia has already supplied Libya with a 10 -megawatt reactor and is now carrying out prospective studies in Algeria with a view to starting up nuclear production there. It is also conducting feasibility studies to build a reactor in Morocco at Sidi Boulbra, which could be operational by 2016. Namibia, Africa’s number one uranium producer, is now considering using this resource to generate electricity. However, apart from South Africa, it is perhaps Nigeria that has the most ambitious plans with negotiations already in progress with the IAEA to develop a nuclear production capacity of 4,000 megawatts by 2025.

This favourable climate is fuelling a uranium ‘gold rush’ across the African continent where in 2006, according to the Paris Energy Observatory, four countries possessed almost 20% of proven world uranium resources: Niger (6.8%), South Africa (6.7%), Namibia (5.7%) and Algeria (0.7%).

In Namibia, where production reached 3,200 tonnes in 2005, the Australian firm Paladin Resources plans to produce an additional 1,200 tonnes from the Heinrich mine in the Namib Desert. This despite protests by environmental groups who fear that mining this radioactive mineral will threaten the ecology of the Naukluft National Park.

Niger, Africa’s second producer (3,093 tonnes), which on its own accounts for 13.5% of EU imports, skilfully played off rival mining groups this summer to impose a 46% increase in the price of the uranium. It sold this to the world’s number one, the French company Areva, until then its sole customer. But the days are numbered for this monopoly. In 2006, the China Nation Nuclear Corporation acquired two concessions and three Australian firms recently obtained research permits.

The prospecting rush concerns at least 10 countries. Landmark Minerals (Canada) is interested in Hoggar, Algeria while another Canadian company, Pan African Mining, is prospecting in Madagascar. Australian firms are particularly enterprising with Paladin Resources negotiating a permit in Malawi, while in Tanzania at least five Australian companies have obtained concessions.

There is also uranium prospecting in Zambia and Mauritania, while the South Korean Institute for Geoscience and Mineral Resources has plans to begin prospecting in Nigeria. In Uganda, the African Development Bank, the Nordic Fund and the World Bank are financing an airborne geophysical exploration initiative. Finally, the British firm Brinkley Africa has just signed an agreement with the DRC’s General Commissariat for Atomic Energy to assist in monitoring exports of Congolese radioactive materials and substances. The aim is to combat trafficking and any danger of proliferation for military and terrorist ends which, as The Economist reported, have increased with the spread of civilian nuclear technology.

The involvement of African countries in the nuclear industry also brings new challenges, not least in financing the high cost of reactors that run into billions of dollars, as well as that of managing waste and providing proper security. There is also the question of their long-term profitability and already opponents of the civilian nuclear industry are arguing that by 2040 it will be cheaper to produce electricity from renewable resources. That said, and whether or not African countries fully embrace the nuclear industry, the continent is already strategically positioned on the world hydrocarbon market and it appears it is even more strategically placed when it comes to uranium exploitation and its ultimate use.

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