Post-crisis optimism - Political and economic background

Steeped in a serious crisis in 2006, it has taken the arrival of UN forces and other foreign troops to return Timor-Leste to a comparatively peaceful situation. The crisis claimed scores of lives and saw nearly 200,000 displaced people end up in makeshift camps. Although free and fair elections took place last April they were followed by a disturbing ‘black hole’ of inaction. Now, although most of the key domestic and international players appear to think the crisis is over, it is universally agreed that it is too early to pull out foreign troops.

Refugee camp near the airport of Dili.

© Hegel Goutier

La ONU tuvo que decidir rápidamente la reorganización de su presencia en el lugar, pero enviando solamente policías procedentes en su mayoría de Portugal. Paralelamente, Australia, acompañada por Nueva Zelanda y Malasia, envió un fuerte contingente militar que no quiso someter al control de la ONU. The terrible struggles of the Timor nation and the international iconic stature of its leadership have tended to overshadow the all too real risks of upheaval in a country that is, after all, emerging from a historic trauma.

The price to pay for the so-called unity of the population when independence finally arrived was forgetting, if not actually pardoning, what may have been seen as collaboration or complicity with crimes against humanity. And certainly every family is able to recount heart-aching stories.

Even the charismatic figures who fought for Timor-Leste and brought leadership during the early days of a free nation were unable to stop the riots that developed just a few months after independence was proclaimed. And that happened as UN troops looked on. Troops whose peacekeeping role was extended time and time again.

Then in March 2006 the country found itself in another major crisis. Premier Mari Alkatiri announced that he was dismissing around one-third of the army, nearly 600 soldiers, for mutiny. The soldiers had gone on strike in protest against the army’s alleged discrimination against recruits from the eastern part of Timor-Leste. The Premier’s decision led to yet another explosion of violence during April, May and June 2006 that claimed a total of 46 lives. First there were riots involving those sympathetic to the soldiers who had been dismissed.
Tens of thousands of people, fearing for their lives, became refugees in their own country, ending up living in camps where since the beginning of the crisis 70,000 have sought shelter in Dili and a similar number in the area around the capital.

The UN was quick to return to the area, dispatching only police officers, most of them Portuguese. At the same time, Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia sent large contingents of troops but didn’t place them under UN command.

The outcome of this crisis was the Prime Minister’s resignation on 25 June 2006, even though he still had the support of his powerful political party, Fretilin. This was followed on 10 July with President Xanana Gusmão appointing José Ramos-Horta, the former Foreign Minister in the outgoing government, to take over.

His ability to generate dialogue helped defuse the tense situation in the country to such effect that less than 12 months later, he was able to announce open presidential elections (9 April 2007) and later legislative elections (30 June 30 2007).

Unfortunately, in the wake of these open and free elections, the newly formed government was tied down with numerous difficulties.

The appointment of the prime minister succeeded in lighting a fire of controversy. Additionally, supporters of the opposition party Fretilin took the opportunity to voice their dismay, and once more gangs took to the streets, creating yet another refugee crisis.

Fretilin won the elections (with 29% of the votes, giving them a greater majority than any other party) even though it was predicted they were heading for disaster. But the appointment of a new prime minister was hailed by Fretilin as unconstitutional, as he was the leader of a coalition formed after the results were announced. The constitution states that the formation of a coalition must be announced prior to the elections.

Eventually, the arguments included the suggestion to appointing a Fretilin party member as Premier, who would have three months to present a programme of government to MPs and then – if it was rejected – to present it again three months later. If defeated both times, he would have to resign. The idea never took off as President Ramos-Horta thought that with the country in crisis he couldn’t afford the luxury of losing six months. A practical but anti-constitutional decision.

What are the roots of the crises?

Opinions differ and Alkatiri has spoken to The Courier about this. He is the head of the current opposition and the uncontested leader of Fretilin, which some observers regard as one of the country’s most powerful institutions, alongside the Catholic Church. Bishop Baucau has also offered his views on the situation.

Some observers say that the growing pains the country is experiencing were obviously predictable. Administrative negligence in the final years of Portugal’s colonial rule plus the disaster created by the Indonesian occupation prevented Timor-Leste from having either enough human resources or an effective infrastructure to help the country quickly develop.

Equally serious tensions continue to simmer among the population, owing more to geographical locations than any ethnic rivalry. For example, eastern parts of Timor-Leste were home of most of the resistance fighters during the war for independence, while the western areas close to Indonesian Timor were less involved.

What is more, the country attempted to build itself around the idea of reconciliation between the resistance fighters and the collaborators, without having any real public debate on the issue. To many of the victims of the atrocities, justice has not been done.

Also, the courts are under extreme pressure because of a shortage of judicial experts. The police force is inexperienced and consequently there are no systems or controls available to deal with the violent youth gangs.

Finally, although Timor-Leste may formally adhere to democratic principles, the lack of an effective media or other channels of communication means that there is, in fact, a democratic deficit. As a result riots and other serious incidents can be quickly sparked by even the flimsiest of rumours.

Grounds for optimism

In spite of all that, this young nation’s growing pains are regarded by many as par for the course. Grounds for some optimism are already there. The most encouraging sign is that less than 12 months after the 2006 crisis the country was able to hold open and free elections.

Another encouraging sign is that Timor’s economic policy is comparatively sound. While the country is not rich, it is debt free. Furthermore, Timor-Leste stands to benefit from the deal struck with Australia over revenue from oil reserves located in the territorial waters between the two countries.

Today, the majority of international agencies, observers and military experts in the country are relatively upbeat. They believe that the crisis is over and what’s needed now is support in establishing a sustainable development strategy. Yet another asset is the geopolitical importance of the country. Its bid to join ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) * is virtually a foregone conclusion. Its international financial supporters remain optimistic, reflected in the European Commission’s decision to establish a high-level delegation there in the immediate future.

* ASEAN. Set up in 1967, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) has a goal of economic growth, social progress, cultural development and regional peace and stability amongst its current 10 members: Brunei Darusaalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Hegel Goutier

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